![\"\"](\"https:\/\/imco.org.mx\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/WhatsApp-Image-2026-06-17-at-5.10.34-PM.jpeg\")
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The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), in collaboration with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF)<\/span>, analyzes Mexico\u2019s trade position in the face of the protectionist shift in U.S. tariff policy and the possible outcomes of the treaty\u2019s six-year review. This research shows that, in the most protectionist trade environment the United States has experienced in decades, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has proven to be the only treaty of its kind to have preserved its relative value.<\/span><\/p>\n While Washington imposed tariffs of up to 50% on its main trading partners, Mexican exports that comply with rules of origin have retained their preferential access to the U.S. market. As a result, in April 2026, Mexico consolidated its position as the top supplier of U.S. imports, with a 16.9% share of the total, surpassing the European Union (16.3%), Canada (11.7%), and China (6.6%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Market share in total U.S. imports by trading partner. <\/b>Percentage of total (January 2024\u2013April 2026)<\/p>\n This is possible because Mexico\u2019s implicit tariff rate \u2014at just 3.6%\u2014 is among the lowest of the country\u2019s major trading partners, compared to 7.4% for the EU, 8.6% for Germany, and 21.0% for China.<\/span><\/p>\n Implicit tariff rate collected by the United States by trading partner <\/b>(July 2025\u2013April 2026)<\/p>\n These results reflect Mexico\u2019s starting position ahead of the formal USMCA review, whose deadline is set for July 1, 2026, in accordance with Article 34.7 of the treaty. The most likely scenario \u2014given current conditions\u2014 is a review extended into 2027, with heightened uncertainty over the terms of treaty renewal, but with tariff preferences remaining in effect throughout the negotiation process. This does not mean the USMCA is at risk of disappearing, but rather that the conditions under which Mexico will compete within the region over the next decade will be defined in this process.<\/span><\/p>\n For German and European investors with a presence in Mexico, the key message is that the country remains the most competitive strategic platform for accessing the North American market. The adjustments and demands that will emerge from the review also represent an opportunity to deepen regional integration.<\/p>\n Mexico\u2019s concrete task in this negotiation is to preserve and consolidate the advantage it has maintained so far, while also strengthening rules-of-origin compliance, reducing dependence on inputs from Asia, modernizing customs processes, and coordinating positions with Canada in response to Washington\u2019s demands on energy, intellectual property, and Chinese investment.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"![\"\"](\"https:\/\/imco.org.mx\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/USMCA_Review_FNF-1.png\")
<\/h6>\nSource:<\/b> Prepared by IMCO with data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC).<\/span><\/h6>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/imco.org.mx\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/USMCA_Review_FNF1.png\")
<\/h6>\nSource:<\/b> Prepared by IMCO with data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC).<\/span><\/h6>\n